The Consumer: Slower Spending, Shifting Priorities
Key Points: Companies have begun to signal that 2025 is off to a rough start. We’ve heard rumblings of a weaker consumer before, but our math said they would power through, and they did. This time feels different. The effects of immigration and DOGE on the job market have yet to take hold. We see a (0.5)% headwind to PCE from immigration and a (0.2)% impact from DOGE. On a probability-weighted basis, we see a