Key points: It wasn’t long ago that economists were bracing for a hard landing. Today, the markets are having a party. The consumer accounts for 70% of GDP, and we think they’re a bit off kilter. While growth has been good, we find that gains in both the labor market and PCE have been narrowly focused, and that doesn’t inspire confidence. Labor markets are in flux – demand for labor has already slowed and immigration

Key Points: It used to be that investors could buy the best global brands, close their eyes, and watch their gains compound over time. That strategy hasn’t been working well, at least not in consumer land. Estee Lauder, Gucci, Nike, Disney, LVMH and Lululemon have each underperformed the market by (15)% or more over the past three years. The aim of this report is to assess what – if anything – is amiss with global

Key Points: Staples have underperformed the market on a one-, three-, five- and ten-year basis. They were paragons of pricing power for much of the 80’s and 90’s, but the group has fallen from grace. This report analyzes the stocks from both a fundamental and a tactical perspective. We also seek to understand what makes the stocks tick.

Key Points: After being steadfastly bullish on the consumer for two and a half years, we became more cautious back in July. We don’t see a major problem ahead, but our forecasts call for a considerable slowdown in spending growth. We think we’ve got the general direction right, but there’s plenty of uncertainty to go around. The data have also been a moving target, so we think it makes sense to be prepared for a

Key Points: For those interested in the distribution of things, there’s been a treasure trove of data released over the past few weeks. In this report we analyze trends using the American Time Use Survey, the Fed’s Distributional Financial Accounts, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey. We tease out important trends by age, income and generation from each of those data sets.

Key Points: This report introduces a new framework that we call “In the Weeds”. By dissecting business models into their component parts, we can understand what makes companies tick. The first iteration of the framework focuses on dollar stores, home improvement stocks, specialty retailers, and mass merchants. Over time, we intend to add other industries to our arsenal. We analyze ~25 companies on traditional metrics that include sales per square foot, operating margins, inventory turnover,