Key Points: As investors get back to work, we thought it would be a good idea to explore a variety of subjects that clients are asking about. The topics range from macro to micro. Our macro work says there’s a soft patch ahead. Our micro work seeks to identify stocks that can work in that setting. Is the consumer strong or weak? This should be an easy question, but there’s room for debate. Consumer sentiment

Key Points: Asset-light business models used to be all the rage, but asset productivity has been falling for the past few years, and we’re likely to see more of the same in 2025 and 2026. Capex to sales for the market is on track to surpass 8% this year, and the tech sector will be north of 10% – both have historically been closer to 6%. Investments in AI and elsewhere may pay off handsomely

Key Points Fundamentals in the housing market are not terribly inspiring – sales are still scraping along the bottom, rates remain stubbornly high, inventories are on the rise, delinquencies are ticking up, and home equity growth is slowing. We’ve been optimistic about housing-related stocks, and this report is a gut check of sorts.

Key Points: Leisure stocks swooned when macro concerns were running high and rate cuts were in the offing, but they rallied strongly as the market’s outlook on the economy became more sanguine and rate cuts became less likely. Restaurant stocks haven’t performed as well, and fast food and dine-in restaurants have been on different tracks. This report fuses top-down and bottom-up analytics to assess the outlook for food consumption and restaurant stocks, in particular. Quick-serve

Key Points: Investors in consumer stocks need to navigate a few crosscurrents. Earnings quality is poor with employment growth being driven by acyclical sectors and incomes being propped up by entitlements. A crackdown on immigration, tariff-induced inflation and stepped-up student debt collection may create some turbulence in the months ahead. At some point, fiscal stimulus will come to the rescue. There might be a good way to trade around each of these events, but our

It’s almost impossible to have a discussion about the consumer these days without a thorough understanding of government policy. Our recent reports and webinars have touched on tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. This report focuses on household balance sheets with a particular emphasis on student debt. Government and the consumer are tied at the hip. Transfer payments have been accelerating and are adding a full point to personal income growth. Government employment has been responsible