We hosted a webinar to review the state of the consumer and to detail why 2025 might hold a few surprises.  We dive into the labor markets with a focus on immigration; we assess the implications of other policies such as tariffs and taxes; we explore household balance sheets to understand how wealth and leverage might influence consumer spending.  Our take is that a softening consumer will impact the interest rate environment, and that in turn, can have meaningful implications for stock selection.  The slides…

Brinker has been on a tear.  Same store sales have been ripping even as other restaurants are struggling.  We talk with CFO Mika Ware who has a unique perspective on the company’s turnaround.  It’s a classic case of blocking and tackling — slimming down the menu, simplifying recipes, improving standards, and killer marketing that’s informed by insights and data.  It sounds like Brinker has more work to do at Chili’s, and it might be able to replicate that success with other banners.

Bill Rhodes led AutoZone for nearly 20 years.  Over that time, the auto parts industry faced major change — auto cycles have come and gone, the industry has consolidated, e-Commerce has altered the landscape, and vehicles have become laden with technology.  So far, it seems that the more things have changed, the more they’ve stayed the same — AutoZone has remained relevant to its customers and its business model has stayed the course.  More change is on the horizon — EVs are making inroads, etc. …

Friday’s revision to income and spending data has caused confusion.  We’ve prepared a 10-minute podcast to review the investment implications.  Some of the changes can be disregarded as noise, but there are three important takeaways.  First, the latest iteration of personal income is highly disconnected from labor market data.  Second, this is not the first time savings rates have been meaningfully revised, nor will it be last.  Investors should move on from using the savings rate as an investable data point.  Household balance sheets are…

Yesterday, we caught up with Carol Tome, the CEO of UPS.  We covered a lot of ground … as UPS typically does!  We talked about the state of the global supply chain, the shift between goods and services, the de minimis rule, tariffs, UPS’ relationship with Amazon, the labor market, driverless vehicles, drones, AI, and more.  Click the link to view our 20-minute interview.  So far, we’ve hosted the CEOs of Delta, Home Depot, and UPS.  There’s more to come.  Sign up for our podcast…

We’ve been getting a lot of questions from clients about the low-end consumer, so we assembled a deck of charts to walk through the pros and cons of betting on the low-end.  There are a lot of variables to consider, and we walk through a chunk of them on this podcast, including job-finding prospects, wage growth, SNAP benefits, tariffs, interest rates, and stock price performance.  As always, feel free to reach out with questions.