We hosted a webinar reviewing the changing landscape for the US consumer.  We are entering a new phase and see weaker spending growth ahead.  This has significant implications for portfolio weightings.  We have lightened up on our exposure to leisure stocks and are instead recommending clients over-weight rate-sensitive durables like housing, autos, and RVs.  We assess the odds of a recession emerging and take questions from clients.

Today we caught up with Ted Decker, the CEO of Home Depot.  We talked about the health of the consumer, the state of the housing market, the “lock-in” effect, AI, and more.  I asked how long the hangover in COVID-friendly categories like BBQ grills, outdoor furniture and washing machines might last.  He compared the dynamic to a hurricane, which made a lot of sense to me.  Home Depot has seen plenty of hurricanes over time, and they’re using those experiences to inform buying decisions.  This…

Conversations with CEO/CFOs:  We added a new feature to our “Up-to-Data” podcast series. This week’s issue features a 30-minute conversation with Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Airlines.  Ed has led Delta’s employees, customers and shareholders through some turbulent times.  In the process, he and the rest of the Delta team have built trust with customers (empathy), employees (no furloughs), and shareholders (no dilution).  We talk about the state of the consumer, the outlook for growth in the airline industry, the potential for AI to…

This installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast is more comprehensive than most.  We take a step back to see what the latest data are telling us about the consumer.  We cover the labor market, excess savings, the wealth effect, goods vs. services, household balance sheets, inventory dynamics, the housing sector, and leisure. Coming soon: Conversations with Corporate Execs.  Many of our future podcasts will feature interviews with corporate executives.  We’ll be talking to them about the consumer overall and trends in their business.  Our first conversation…

The Presidential election is not far away, and this installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast explores how policy might influence consumer behavior.  When it comes to policy, there’s a lot to consider, and we’re especially attuned to distributional shifts that could occur as a result.  The presentation also takes stock of household balance sheets, including the supply of credit.  Finally, we touch on “inventory freshness” now that retailers have finished reporting Q1 results — the outlook for gross margins is still biased to the upside.  The…

We’ve analyzed a ton of new data over the past week.  Issue #4 of our podcast makes sure you are up to date.  It walks you through incremental data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, April retail sales, e-Commerce penetration, Capital One, Discover Financial, Home Depot, the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report, the San Francisco Fed’s excess savings analysis, and more.  We expect the consumer to remain strong.  In our view, mixed signals from companies have more to do with lower…