We’ve been cautious on the consumer for the past six months.  It’s not just about tariffs.  Employment growth is lopsided, PCE growth has been of low quality, immigration will soon begin to weigh on aggregate demand, the credit impulse is muted, the “wealth effect” is reversing, and real wage growth is already slowing.  Tariffs are a headwind, but they don’t anchor our view.  This 30-minute webinar walks through a ton of useful data.

We hosted a timely webinar that outlined a few tail risks.  Employment growth is being driven by acyclical sectors like government and health care.  Both of these are under a microscope.  Job gains are heavily skewed to large firms with over 500 employees.  That adds risk to the equation.  Immigrants have also been driving the train, but for how long? Tail risk is also discernible within PCE.  Obscure categories are growing twice as fast as “bankable” categories.  Have a listen!

Hal Lawton joins a growing list of CEOs that’ve graced us with their presence.  He shared key insights on our podcast.  We talked about how a tight housing market pushed Millennials into TSCO’s catchment area.  We talked about TSCO’s 7% market share, and the fact that outsized comps were driven by transactions, not ticket.  TSCO has no direct peer — that means it doesn’t have to share its slice of the market with “like” competitors or fall prey to their mistakes.  Give a listen!

We hosted a webinar to review the state of the consumer and to detail why 2025 might hold a few surprises.  We dive into the labor markets with a focus on immigration; we assess the implications of other policies such as tariffs and taxes; we explore household balance sheets to understand how wealth and leverage might influence consumer spending.  Our take is that a softening consumer will impact the interest rate environment, and that in turn, can have meaningful implications for stock selection.  The slides…

Brinker has been on a tear.  Same store sales have been ripping even as other restaurants are struggling.  We talk with CFO Mika Ware who has a unique perspective on the company’s turnaround.  It’s a classic case of blocking and tackling — slimming down the menu, simplifying recipes, improving standards, and killer marketing that’s informed by insights and data.  It sounds like Brinker has more work to do at Chili’s, and it might be able to replicate that success with other banners.

Bill Rhodes led AutoZone for nearly 20 years.  Over that time, the auto parts industry faced major change — auto cycles have come and gone, the industry has consolidated, e-Commerce has altered the landscape, and vehicles have become laden with technology.  So far, it seems that the more things have changed, the more they’ve stayed the same — AutoZone has remained relevant to its customers and its business model has stayed the course.  More change is on the horizon — EVs are making inroads, etc. …