Key Points: There were more than a few landmines in the consumer sector during Q1 earnings season, and lately, it’s been bellwether stocks like Starbucks, McDonald’s, Nike, and Lululemon that’ve been sounding the alarm. The aim of this report is to understand whether Q1 results signal a softening consumer, or if the issues are idiosyncratic in nature.
Key Points: The gig economy remains a mystery. It’s estimated that 25% of the population participates in informal work, but their efforts are not captured in official statistics. If they were, employment would be higher by as much as 4%. The gig economy has spawned some interesting business models like Uber and DoorDash. This report offers a perspective on those platforms and compares them to other delivery-based models, including Dominos, Amazon and UPS.
Key Points: There’s been a wide divergence of returns among consumer stocks over the past year. In the process, we’ve seen valuations converge. In this report, we dig into valuation – our aim is to determine whether it should play a central role or a supporting role in the stock selection process. We also seek to identify opportunities that boast both solid fundamentals and attractive valuation.
Key Points: Brands are supposed to be more valuable than resellers, but Costco’s stock has outperformed Pepsi, Dick’s has fared a lot better than Nike, and Ulta has bested Estee Lauder. This report analyzes dynamics in the footwear, beauty and home furnishings industries to understand what, if anything, is afoot.
Key Points: Another earnings season is winding down. As a group, the 140 consumer stocks we track grew Q4 revenues by +4%. Profits grew marginally but were +6% excluding the volatile auto sector. Normalization was evident in the results. Leisure stocks are still in recovery mode. Durables are battling a post-COVID hangover, and both autos and staples are struggling to get price and volume back into balance. This report is a consumer 10-K of sorts
Key Points: Amazon might be a tech stock, but its business model is very physical. Andy Jassy recognizes that. Since he took the helm, Amazon’s employee count is basically flat, fulfillment center growth has slowed to 8%, and AWS has extracted two additional years of service from its data centers. Mr. Jassy is squeezing blood from a stone, and the aim of this report is to figure out how much opportunity remains, and what’s baked
Today we caught up with Ted Decker, the CEO of Home Depot. We talked about the health of the consumer, the state of the housing market, the “lock-in” effect, AI, and more. I asked how long the hangover in COVID-friendly categories like BBQ grills, outdoor furniture and washing machines might last. He compared the dynamic to a hurricane, which made…
Conversations with CEO/CFOs: We added a new feature to our “Up-to-Data” podcast series. This week’s issue features a 30-minute conversation with Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Airlines. Ed has led Delta’s employees, customers and shareholders through some turbulent times. In the process, he and the rest of the Delta team have built trust with customers (empathy), employees (no furloughs),…
This installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast is more comprehensive than most. We take a step back to see what the latest data are telling us about the consumer. We cover the labor market, excess savings, the wealth effect, goods vs. services, household balance sheets, inventory dynamics, the housing sector, and leisure. Coming soon: Conversations with Corporate Execs. Many of our…
The Presidential election is not far away, and this installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast explores how policy might influence consumer behavior. When it comes to policy, there’s a lot to consider, and we’re especially attuned to distributional shifts that could occur as a result. The presentation also takes stock of household balance sheets, including the supply of credit. Finally, we…
We’ve analyzed a ton of new data over the past week. Issue #4 of our podcast makes sure you are up to date. It walks you through incremental data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, April retail sales, e-Commerce penetration, Capital One, Discover Financial, Home Depot, the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report, the San Francisco Fed’s…
In issue #3 we analyze immigration, excess savings, and the low-end consumer. Immigration has been a big contributor to the labor force, and with elections in the offing, it presents more than a trivial risk. We track the amount of construction put into place due to the CHIPS Act. We also offer an analysis of the US mattress industry. We…