The consumer is spending ahead of their means.  Are they living on a prayer?  Our take is that consumers can keep pulling rabbits out of their proverbial hat.  AI doesn’t appear to be derailing the job market, the biggest energy spike might be behind us, rising rates aren’t that costly, and balance sheets remain solid.  The savings rate will flex to accommodate spending, especially for the top 20%.  Consumer stocks have been terrible.  The “Global Brand-emic” is at the root of the problem.

We built 3 new interactive dashboards to (i) add insight to your investment process, and (ii) save you time!  “What Makes Them Tick?” lets you see how 125 stocks respond to 24 macro variables.  It tells you how each retailer respond to supply chain pressure, how each leisure name reacts to labor conditions, etc. “Does Macro Matter?” lets you sort returns based on hundreds of macro conditions.  Sort by alpha, “hit rate” or spread for any macro condition.  “How They Behave” analyzes the correlation of…

The consumer is in an awkward spot.  Real disposable income is in negative territory — a rare sight.  PCE has held up, however, due to OBBB benefits and a declining savings rate.  Some think the savings rate is a red flag… we see it as yellow.  Consumer stocks have been a minefield.  The sector has felt irrelevant in an AI world, and sales and earnings trends have lagged the broader market… despite a shot in the arm from tax refunds.  We think the consumer will…

The consumer is perceived to be the stalwart of the US economy, but it’s more nuanced than that.   After all, the two largest consumer markets — housing and autos — have been floundering.  Those pockets of weakness have given oxygen to other areas of consumption.  So long as that’s the case, the status quo can prevail.  To assess what lays ahead, we quantify the macro crosscurrents acting upon the consumer.  We also offer an outlook for global brands, retail stocks, consumer staples, leisure, housing and…

Rubinson Research is now four years old.  We were more optimistic than most for the first three years and we’ve been more cautious than most for the past year.  We’re not betting against the consumer, but our sense is that companies (and some investors) are taking the consumer for granted.  We always stick to the math, and absent a major uptick in employment, the outlook isn’t terribly inspiring.  This 30-minute webinar is chock-full of thought-provoking data.

We’ve spent a lot of time trying to understand how the consumer will behave in 2026 and 2027.  Population growth will be anemic, job growth is already weak, and the risk associated with AI is on the come.  The OBBB will serve as a counterweight, but it’ll be more of a sugar high than a panacea.  We think retailers are the best bet in consumer-land due to (i) elevated tax refunds, (ii) a rate environment that favors goods over services, and (iii) the global brand-emic.