Key Points: AI is the most dominant theme in the broader market, but we don’t think it’s driven a whole lot of alpha within the consumer universe just yet. Investors in consumer stocks are busy grappling with a potential soft patch and a subsequent recovery once the OBBB kicks in. When short-term volatility subsides, AI is likely to take center stage. The data center boom is great for chip makers, hyper-scalers and utilities, but it’s

Key Points: Global brands have shed $1.5Tr in relative market value over the past two years, and the effect isn’t limited to a single sector or a single country. We’re in a brand-emic, and we think it’s a better idea to invest in high-quality retailers than to hope for a turnaround in global brands. Retailers sell an array of brands, and that portfolio approach feels right at this point in time. So far, betting on

Key Points: The state of global brands has gone from bad to worse since we published Part I of this report a year ago. When it comes to stock price returns, brands had the upper hand for 25 years, but that advantage has been erased in just two years’ time. The aim of this report is threefold: (i) we seek to understand what’s ailing global brands, (ii) we assess whether branded companies or the retailers

Key Points: As investors get back to work, we thought it would be a good idea to explore a variety of subjects that clients are asking about. The topics range from macro to micro. Our macro work says there’s a soft patch ahead. Our micro work seeks to identify stocks that can work in that setting. Is the consumer strong or weak? This should be an easy question, but there’s room for debate. Consumer sentiment

Key Points: Asset-light business models used to be all the rage, but asset productivity has been falling for the past few years, and we’re likely to see more of the same in 2025 and 2026. Capex to sales for the market is on track to surpass 8% this year, and the tech sector will be north of 10% – both have historically been closer to 6%. Investments in AI and elsewhere may pay off handsomely

Key Points Fundamentals in the housing market are not terribly inspiring – sales are still scraping along the bottom, rates remain stubbornly high, inventories are on the rise, delinquencies are ticking up, and home equity growth is slowing. We’ve been optimistic about housing-related stocks, and this report is a gut check of sorts.