Key Points: Labor’s share of economic output steadied in 2024 and 2025, but the past two quarters have reversed course, and those declines are among the worst on record. We can’t help but wonder if AI is disrupting the job market. This report seeks to assess the risk AI presents to employment. We also strive to quantify what AI can do for productivity. We built two new interactive dashboards along the way.

Key Points: Investors often find themselves at the mercy of exogenous factors, and stock selection needs to incorporate macro variables. This report seeks to separate the signal from the noise… and when it comes to macro variables, there’s a lot of noise. We built four new interactive dashboards to help you focus on what matters. Here’s a punchy three-minute video showing you how to extract useful information from these interactive dashboards. “What Makes Them Tick?”

Key Points: We still see the consumers’ glass as half full, not half empty, but it’s safe to say that their proverbial cup isn’t running over. When resources are scarce, some expenditures are prioritized and others take a back seat. In this report, we track some of the choices consumers are making with the aim of identifying categories that are gaining wallet share and companies that are growing market share.

Key Points: Older generations are due to pass on as much as $124Tr in real wealth over the next 25 years. The next 10 years should see annual inheritance reach ~$3Tr, up from just over ~$2Tr in the previous 10 years. An extra $1Tr per year is quite significant – it amounts to 5% of PCE – but the question is how much of it will get spent. This report explores the magnitude, timing, and

Key Points: The executive suite has been a revolving door. Last year alone, publicly traded companies saw ~450 CEO changes, twice the normal level. The consumer sector has seen about the same. The aim of this report is (i) to put these executive changes into context, (ii) to assess whether investors ought to exploit CEO change as an investment theme, and (iii) to see if a high degree of management turnover corroborates our thinking about

Key Points: There are two big themes in the market these days – an upturn in the cyclical economy, and the AI revolution. The market doesn’t think consumer stocks fit into either bucket. We explore both of those themes in this report to help us understand when consumer stocks will become relevant again. Consumer cyclical stocks appear to be losing some of their cyclicality. For most of the past year, discretionary returns have been as