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Broad Insights. Deep Analysis.

All Reports

New Insights on the K-Shape, MPCs, the “Lock-in Effect”, Travel Spending, SNAP … and More

Key Points: The Fed’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances is a treasure trove of data, and we’ve gone through the newest vintage with a fine-toothed comb. The headlines tend to focus on changes in wealth for the most basic cohorts, but this report goes far beyond that. We cover the broad strokes, but our aim is to dissect the granular data to help clients answer some big investment questions. We use the SCF data to

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Pricing Power: Who Has it? An Interactive Approach

Key Points: Pricing power is a critical attribute, especially in periods of elevated inflation. Identifying pricing power, however, is not an easy task – it’s more art than science. This report strives to add more science to the endeavor. In it, we assess the price sensitivity of the consumer at the aggregate level, plus we measure pricing power at the category level, and at the company level. Price sensitivity at the aggregate level: Figure 4

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AI, the Job Market and Returns to Productivity

Key Points: Labor’s share of economic output steadied in 2024 and 2025, but the past two quarters have reversed course, and those declines are among the worst on record. We can’t help but wonder if AI is disrupting the job market. This report seeks to assess the risk AI presents to employment. We also strive to quantify what AI can do for productivity. We built two new interactive dashboards along the way.

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Dude, Who Moved My Stock? Actionable Insights from Four New Interactive Dashboards

Key Points: Investors often find themselves at the mercy of exogenous factors, and stock selection needs to incorporate macro variables. This report seeks to separate the signal from the noise… and when it comes to macro variables, there’s a lot of noise. We built four new interactive dashboards to help you focus on what matters. Here’s a punchy three-minute video showing you how to extract useful information from these interactive dashboards. “What Makes Them Tick?”

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What Consumers Want. An Analysis of Wallet Share and Market Share

Key Points: We still see the consumers’ glass as half full, not half empty, but it’s safe to say that their proverbial cup isn’t running over. When resources are scarce, some expenditures are prioritized and others take a back seat. In this report, we track some of the choices consumers are making with the aim of identifying categories that are gaining wallet share and companies that are growing market share.

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The Great Wealth Transfer. How Will Inheritance Shape Consumer Spending?

Key Points: Older generations are due to pass on as much as $124Tr in real wealth over the next 25 years. The next 10 years should see annual inheritance reach ~$3Tr, up from just over ~$2Tr in the previous 10 years. An extra $1Tr per year is quite significant – it amounts to 5% of PCE – but the question is how much of it will get spent. This report explores the magnitude, timing, and

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"UP-TO-DATA" PODCAST​

Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales, e-Com, Home Depot, The “Lock-in Effect”, and Credit Card Green Shoots

We’ve analyzed a ton of new data over the past week.  Issue #4 of our podcast makes sure you are up to date.  It walks you through incremental data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, April retail sales, e-Commerce penetration, Capital One, Discover Financial, Home Depot, the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report, the San Francisco Fed’s excess savings analysis, and more.  We expect the consumer to remain strong.  In our view, mixed signals from companies have more to do with lower…

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Savings, Inflation, Immigration, the Low-End, Food, and Mattresses

In issue #3 we analyze immigration, excess savings, and the low-end consumer.  Immigration has been a big contributor to the labor force, and with elections in the offing, it presents more than a trivial risk.  We track the amount of construction put into place due to the CHIPS Act.  We also offer an analysis of the US mattress industry.  We compare units sold to normal, and we stack up the TPX business model to other vertically-integrated retailers/brands.

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The “Energy Effect”, Credit Card Dynamics, and Housing

In issue #2 we analyze the effect rising energy prices may have on consumption.  One month ago, energy prices would’ve been a 75 basis-point “good guy” for the consumer.  Now it’s more of a marginal friend.  We measure inflation by income cohort, also focus on credit card delinquency trends and the profile of housing inventory.

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