Key Points: Leisure stocks swooned when macro concerns were running high and rate cuts were in the offing, but they rallied strongly as the market’s outlook on the economy became more sanguine and rate cuts became less likely. Restaurant stocks haven’t performed as well, and fast food and dine-in restaurants have been on different tracks. This report fuses top-down and bottom-up analytics to assess the outlook for food consumption and restaurant stocks, in particular. Quick-serve

Key Points: Investors in consumer stocks need to navigate a few crosscurrents. Earnings quality is poor with employment growth being driven by acyclical sectors and incomes being propped up by entitlements. A crackdown on immigration, tariff-induced inflation and stepped-up student debt collection may create some turbulence in the months ahead. At some point, fiscal stimulus will come to the rescue. There might be a good way to trade around each of these events, but our

It’s almost impossible to have a discussion about the consumer these days without a thorough understanding of government policy. Our recent reports and webinars have touched on tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. This report focuses on household balance sheets with a particular emphasis on student debt. Government and the consumer are tied at the hip. Transfer payments have been accelerating and are adding a full point to personal income growth. Government employment has been responsible

Key Points: Rubinson Research has been in business for a little over three years. We were super bullish on the consumer in 2022, 2023 and most of 2024. We turned cautious last fall, but we’re striking a more neutral tone today. Join us for a webinar this Thursday to discuss the findings of this report and many other subjects. We model the risk posed by tariffs from the top down and the bottom up. Figures

Key Points: Immigration was among the markets primary concerns before tariffs stole the show. We think it’ll re-emerge as a key talking point before too long. Immigration has been contributing almost a full percentage point to population growth, triple its normal contribution. We analyze border crossings, work permit applications, and state-level employment dynamics to understand the effect reduced immigration might have on employment and aggregate demand. Traditional labor market surveys do not do a good

Key Points: “Liberation Day” sparked a dramatic selloff, but we think there are other reasons to be concerned about the consumer. Employment growth is lopsided, PCE growth has been of low quality, immigration will soon begin to weigh on aggregate demand, real wages are already slowing, and the “wealth effect” is reversing. The market’s knee-jerk reaction was to snap up consumer staples. We think housing-related stocks are the better bet. The existing home market has