By Publisher API
Published on February 13, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Rubinson Research is now four years old. We were more optimistic than most for the first three years and we’ve been more cautious than most for the past year. We’re not betting against the consumer, but our sense is that companies (and some investors) are taking the consumer for granted. We always stick to the math, and absent a major uptick in employment, the outlook isn’t terribly inspiring. This 30-minute webinar is chock-full of thought-provoking data.
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By Publisher API
Published on December 30, 2025 at 9:36 AM
We’ve spent a lot of time trying to understand how the consumer will behave in 2026 and 2027. Population growth will be anemic, job growth is already weak, and the risk associated with AI is on the come. The OBBB will serve as a counterweight, but it’ll be more of a sugar high than a panacea. We think retailers are the best bet in consumer-land due to (i) elevated tax refunds, (ii) a rate environment that favors goods over services, and (iii) the global brand-emic.
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By Publisher API
Published on November 17, 2025 at 3:23 PM
The consumer has been a juggernaut, but the math doesn’t add up. Employment, the engine of consumption, has stalled. It’s not because of AI — that risk is still in front of us. The high-end has been driving PCE, but the “wealth effect” is probably not as durable as some suggest. Our math says a 2% change in home values is worth as much as a 10% move in the S&P. We are cautious on leisure. It makes sense to own retailers during a brand-emic.
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By Publisher API
Published on September 12, 2025 at 9:37 AM
We’ve been expecting the consumer to hit a soft patch, and recent employment data have made that outcome more likely. Fiscal stimulus and rate cuts will help stave off a bigger issue, but portfolios might still need to be reoriented. We think rate-sensitive names will continue to work — we’re especially fond of housing-related stocks. And, we built three frameworks to identify stocks that can bridge a gap. They identify issues with (i) pricing power, (ii) asset-light models, and (iii) good shock absorbers.
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By Publisher API
Published on July 27, 2025 at 9:17 AM
This webinar details our outlook for the consumer. H2 ’25 will be turbulent due to a lopsided employment picture, incomes that are not as strong as they appear, an immigration headwind, collateral damage from student debt repayment, and tariffs. We expect the consumer to recover in early ’26 due to stimulus, but investors might want to be prepared for a choppy ride. We recommend finding stocks with pricing power and bulletproof business models. We introduce a couple of frameworks to help chart the course.
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By Publisher API
Published on May 23, 2025 at 11:14 AM
There’s a lot going on in consumer land, and this webinar measures the headwinds and tailwinds facing the consumer in 2025 and 2026. Late last year we grew concerned that the consumer was off kilter — employment and spending trends were unbalanced, and we were concerned that policy would dampen spending growth. Now that fiscal stimulus is in the works, our outlook has turned more neutral. There’s lots of math in this presentation, especially as it pertains to policy — immigration, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus. …
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By Publisher API
Published on April 13, 2025 at 8:34 AM
We’ve been cautious on the consumer for the past six months. It’s not just about tariffs. Employment growth is lopsided, PCE growth has been of low quality, immigration will soon begin to weigh on aggregate demand, the credit impulse is muted, the “wealth effect” is reversing, and real wage growth is already slowing. Tariffs are a headwind, but they don’t anchor our view. This 30-minute webinar walks through a ton of useful data.
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By Publisher API
Published on February 21, 2025 at 10:47 AM
We hosted a timely webinar that outlined a few tail risks. Employment growth is being driven by acyclical sectors like government and health care. Both of these are under a microscope. Job gains are heavily skewed to large firms with over 500 employees. That adds risk to the equation. Immigrants have also been driving the train, but for how long? Tail risk is also discernible within PCE. Obscure categories are growing twice as fast as “bankable” categories. Have a listen!
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By Publisher API
Published on February 7, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Hal Lawton joins a growing list of CEOs that’ve graced us with their presence. He shared key insights on our podcast. We talked about how a tight housing market pushed Millennials into TSCO’s catchment area. We talked about TSCO’s 7% market share, and the fact that outsized comps were driven by transactions, not ticket. TSCO has no direct peer — that means it doesn’t have to share its slice of the market with “like” competitors or fall prey to their mistakes. Give a listen!
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By Publisher API
Published on December 27, 2024 at 11:02 AM
We hosted a webinar to review the state of the consumer and to detail why 2025 might hold a few surprises. We dive into the labor markets with a focus on immigration; we assess the implications of other policies such as tariffs and taxes; we explore household balance sheets to understand how wealth and leverage might influence consumer spending. Our take is that a softening consumer will impact the interest rate environment, and that in turn, can have meaningful implications for stock selection. The slides…
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By Publisher API
Published on December 19, 2024 at 10:26 AM
Brinker has been on a tear. Same store sales have been ripping even as other restaurants are struggling. We talk with CFO Mika Ware who has a unique perspective on the company’s turnaround. It’s a classic case of blocking and tackling — slimming down the menu, simplifying recipes, improving standards, and killer marketing that’s informed by insights and data. It sounds like Brinker has more work to do at Chili’s, and it might be able to replicate that success with other banners.
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By Publisher API
Published on October 1, 2024 at 1:42 PM
Bill Rhodes led AutoZone for nearly 20 years. Over that time, the auto parts industry faced major change — auto cycles have come and gone, the industry has consolidated, e-Commerce has altered the landscape, and vehicles have become laden with technology. So far, it seems that the more things have changed, the more they’ve stayed the same — AutoZone has remained relevant to its customers and its business model has stayed the course. More change is on the horizon — EVs are making inroads, etc. …
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By Publisher API
Published on September 28, 2024 at 5:58 PM
Friday’s revision to income and spending data has caused confusion. We’ve prepared a 10-minute podcast to review the investment implications. Some of the changes can be disregarded as noise, but there are three important takeaways. First, the latest iteration of personal income is highly disconnected from labor market data. Second, this is not the first time savings rates have been meaningfully revised, nor will it be last. Investors should move on from using the savings rate as an investable data point. Household balance sheets are…
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By Publisher API
Published on September 11, 2024 at 9:59 AM
Yesterday, we caught up with Carol Tome, the CEO of UPS. We covered a lot of ground … as UPS typically does! We talked about the state of the global supply chain, the shift between goods and services, the de minimis rule, tariffs, UPS’ relationship with Amazon, the labor market, driverless vehicles, drones, AI, and more. Click the link to view our 20-minute interview. So far, we’ve hosted the CEOs of Delta, Home Depot, and UPS. There’s more to come. Sign up for our podcast…
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By Publisher API
Published on August 22, 2024 at 4:52 PM
We’ve been getting a lot of questions from clients about the low-end consumer, so we assembled a deck of charts to walk through the pros and cons of betting on the low-end. There are a lot of variables to consider, and we walk through a chunk of them on this podcast, including job-finding prospects, wage growth, SNAP benefits, tariffs, interest rates, and stock price performance. As always, feel free to reach out with questions.
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By Publisher API
Published on August 7, 2024 at 10:34 AM
We hosted a webinar reviewing the changing landscape for the US consumer. We are entering a new phase and see weaker spending growth ahead. This has significant implications for portfolio weightings. We have lightened up on our exposure to leisure stocks and are instead recommending clients over-weight rate-sensitive durables like housing, autos, and RVs. We assess the odds of a recession emerging and take questions from clients.
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By Publisher API
Published on July 22, 2024 at 11:57 AM
Today we caught up with Ted Decker, the CEO of Home Depot. We talked about the health of the consumer, the state of the housing market, the “lock-in” effect, AI, and more. I asked how long the hangover in COVID-friendly categories like BBQ grills, outdoor furniture and washing machines might last. He compared the dynamic to a hurricane, which made a lot of sense to me. Home Depot has seen plenty of hurricanes over time, and they’re using those experiences to inform buying decisions. This…
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By Publisher API
Published on July 16, 2024 at 10:30 AM
Conversations with CEO/CFOs: We added a new feature to our “Up-to-Data” podcast series. This week’s issue features a 30-minute conversation with Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Airlines. Ed has led Delta’s employees, customers and shareholders through some turbulent times. In the process, he and the rest of the Delta team have built trust with customers (empathy), employees (no furloughs), and shareholders (no dilution). We talk about the state of the consumer, the outlook for growth in the airline industry, the potential for AI to…
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By Publisher API
Published on June 30, 2024 at 12:58 PM
This installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast is more comprehensive than most. We take a step back to see what the latest data are telling us about the consumer. We cover the labor market, excess savings, the wealth effect, goods vs. services, household balance sheets, inventory dynamics, the housing sector, and leisure. Coming soon: Conversations with Corporate Execs. Many of our future podcasts will feature interviews with corporate executives. We’ll be talking to them about the consumer overall and trends in their business. Our first conversation…
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By Publisher API
Published on June 11, 2024 at 10:45 AM
The Presidential election is not far away, and this installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast explores how policy might influence consumer behavior. When it comes to policy, there’s a lot to consider, and we’re especially attuned to distributional shifts that could occur as a result. The presentation also takes stock of household balance sheets, including the supply of credit. Finally, we touch on “inventory freshness” now that retailers have finished reporting Q1 results — the outlook for gross margins is still biased to the upside. The…
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By Publisher API
Published on May 22, 2024 at 6:02 PM
We’ve analyzed a ton of new data over the past week. Issue #4 of our podcast makes sure you are up to date. It walks you through incremental data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, April retail sales, e-Commerce penetration, Capital One, Discover Financial, Home Depot, the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report, the San Francisco Fed’s excess savings analysis, and more. We expect the consumer to remain strong. In our view, mixed signals from companies have more to do with lower…
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By Publisher API
Published on May 22, 2024 at 4:40 PM
In issue #3 we analyze immigration, excess savings, and the low-end consumer. Immigration has been a big contributor to the labor force, and with elections in the offing, it presents more than a trivial risk. We track the amount of construction put into place due to the CHIPS Act. We also offer an analysis of the US mattress industry. We compare units sold to normal, and we stack up the TPX business model to other vertically-integrated retailers/brands.
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By Publisher API
Published on May 22, 2024 at 4:09 PM
In issue #2 we analyze the effect rising energy prices may have on consumption. One month ago, energy prices would’ve been a 75 basis-point “good guy” for the consumer. Now it’s more of a marginal friend. We measure inflation by income cohort, also focus on credit card delinquency trends and the profile of housing inventory.
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By Publisher API
Published on May 21, 2024 at 7:34 PM
In Issue #1 we dig into macro issues like tax refunds, capital gains, the wealth effect, credit card application and rejection rates. We also look at excess savings for the bottom 40% of income, and the top 20%. We offered up a new analysis on Lululemon that maps store productivity versus inventory productivity to complement the work we recently did on Nike.
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