Key Points: The consumer made it through 2022 far better than many expected. The “fiscal cliff’ coupled with above-trend inflation represented a $1.5 trillion headwind, but you’d never know it from looking at spending trends. Real consumption grew by +2% – like clockwork. But is the consumer up for a command performance? The job market will have a lot say about that. This report seeks to quantify the effects that layoffs at Big Tech might

Key Points: In prior reports we assessed what consumer spending will look like in 2023 and which categories will perform best. Clients have also been asking what the future might hold for high- and low-end consumers, and that’s the subject of this report. We think there’s money in the middle. We constructed a rigorous analysis of spending and savings by income. We modelled 10 years of history, and we project what spending might look like

Key Points: We launched the first iteration of the Idea Generator two months ago, and we’re updating it to incorporate client feedback. Our original framework focused on ranking ~50 stocks in the consumer arena. The new model ranks ~170 stocks that are drawn from a broader set of industries, including entertainment, tech, building products, airlines, and others. Our new Idea Generator incorporates 16 elements, many of which are proprietary in nature. The weights of each

Summary Points: When it comes to analyzing the US consumer, there’s no shortage of data to explore. The hard part is separating the signal from the noise. Our job is to study anything and everything that may influence consumption, and while our reports typically focus on a single issue that we analyze in depth, this one provides more of a wide-angle view. We highlight 10 relevant issues and offer a pointed assessment of each with

Summary Points: In the absence of company-issued guidance for 2023, we wanted to fill the void. Our first report in this series analyzed top-down trends to arrive at a logical starting point for company P&Ls. We dug into labor market conditions, excess savings, the ‘wealth effect’ and other factors, to arrive at an estimate for quarterly PCE. This report builds on that analysis by analyzing industry and company-level dynamics. We studied 10 categories of consumption,

Summary Points Earnings for consumer stocks have been all over the map, but there’s been one common element — when it comes to offering 2023 guidance, most companies have demurred. We’re going to try and fill that void with a two-part series. This, our first report, focuses on the macro backdrop, which is an important place to start. After all, “macro uncertainty” is the primary reason companies have balked. Our second report will overlay industry

Summary Points: I launched Rubinson Research 9 months ago. So far, we’ve published 18 reports on substantive topics including: inventory, the “wealth effect”, the low-end consumer, housing, Amazon, pricing power, and more. We’ve also sent out 12 mini reports to clients and hosted 2 webinars. This report is a summary of our November 7th webinar. If you’d like to watch my animated delivery of the content, here is a link to the replay. A Perspective

Summary Points: The consumer is still spending at a decent clip. However, so long as inflation is Enemy #1, investors may interpret that as bad news, a sign that the Fed’s job isn’t done. The best outcome for stocks would be if inflation were to moderate before the consumer cries “uncle”. With wages and inflation at a standoff, the consumer will need an assist from its balance sheet if it’s to outlast inflation. Households are

Summary Points: We built a new framework called the Idea Generator. The goal is to help clients pick consumer-oriented stocks in an uncertain environment. We model 50+ stocks using four underlying elements – Supply and Demand, Valuation, Operating Leverage, and Financial Leverage. The outputs for each element are shown in tabular form below. The overall rankings are shown in Figure 17. On the back of this analysis, we’ve made a number of adjustments to our

Summary Points Jerome Powell has all but put a target on the back of the U.S. consumer. He’s squarely focused on taking the froth out of the labor market and home prices – two key underpinnings of PCE. Our PCE Predictor points to slower spending growth now that we’ve incorporated a decline in home prices and a weaker outlook for employment into our model. Excess savings still provide a meaningful buffer, though, offering 2 percentage