Key Points: Goods are coming back in style, and that’s one of the key reasons we shifted our industry weightings a few months ago – out of leisure stocks and into rate-sensitive durables. In this report, we analyze retail stocks that should also benefit from a return to spending on goods. We put forth three unique ways to analyze retailers: (i) sales per square “footprint”, (ii) inflation-adjusted same store sales, and (iii) inventory “freshness”. Sales

Key Points: Employment is the engine of consumption growth, and it’s shifted into low gear. The aim of this report is to determine whether monetary policy will soften the blow. We assess the effect lower rates might have on (i) the consumers’ P&L, (ii) the low-end consumer, (iii) spending on goods versus services, (iv) the housing market, and (v) home values.

After turning more cautious on the consumer, we’ve received a lot of questions from clients. This report seeks to address those queries while adding a healthy dose of micro analysis to our macro call. We share updated thoughts on autos, RVs, housing-related stocks, staples, and leisure. We also dig into historical return profiles of consumer stocks.

Key Points: Our optimism for the US consumer has been well placed. The consumer has been remarkably resilient over the past few years, largely due to strong labor markets and bulletproof balance sheets. The current year is off to a good start, but as we peer into 2025, we expect spending to slip into a lower gear.

Key Points: The low-end has been struggling for a while, but recent commentary from McDonald’s, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and others has fueled investor concerns. The aim of this report is to add clarity to the debate, and to determine whether a bet on the low-end makes sense.

Key Points: When it comes to the consumer, market participants spend a lot of time and energy studying the demand side of the equation. Supply dynamics often get short shrift. In this report, we analyze the supply of labor, the supply of fixed capacity, and the supply of inventory. Understanding the supply side can also tell us something about where inflation is headed.

Key Points: There were more than a few landmines in the consumer sector during Q1 earnings season, and lately, it’s been bellwether stocks like Starbucks, McDonald’s, Nike, and Lululemon that’ve been sounding the alarm. The aim of this report is to understand whether Q1 results signal a softening consumer, or if the issues are idiosyncratic in nature.

Key Points: The gig economy remains a mystery. It’s estimated that 25% of the population participates in informal work, but their efforts are not captured in official statistics. If they were, employment would be higher by as much as 4%. The gig economy has spawned some interesting business models like Uber and DoorDash. This report offers a perspective on those platforms and compares them to other delivery-based models, including Dominos, Amazon and UPS.

Key Points: There’s been a wide divergence of returns among consumer stocks over the past year. In the process, we’ve seen valuations converge. In this report, we dig into valuation – our aim is to determine whether it should play a central role or a supporting role in the stock selection process. We also seek to identify opportunities that boast both solid fundamentals and attractive valuation.

Key Points: Brands are supposed to be more valuable than resellers, but Costco’s stock has outperformed Pepsi, Dick’s has fared a lot better than Nike, and Ulta has bested Estee Lauder. This report analyzes dynamics in the footwear, beauty and home furnishings industries to understand what, if anything, is afoot.