Summary Points: We’ve been tracking a dozen headwinds and tailwinds that’ve been acting upon the consumer. The math has been telling us that they have the wherewithal to keep spending. We don’t see clear signs of a retrenchment, and even the soft patch we’ve been envisioning has yet to materialize. Now that we’re halfway through 2023, it’s a good idea to extend our analysis to incorporate 2024 and beyond. We built a line-by-line model that

Key Points: Retail stocks have had a rough couple of months. Many of them have pointed to macro headwinds as a reason for lackluster results, but it’s hard to reconcile that with PCE that’s been growing at a 7% clip. This report seeks to understand whether the headwinds retailers have been flagging are macro or micro in nature. We also made a shopping list of sorts to help identify attractive retail stocks. Prior to the

Key Points: When it comes to consumer spending, we’ve been vocal in our concern for the low-end. Lately, however, we’ve been getting questions about the high-end consumer, and clients are beginning to wonder if they might also come under pressure. This report seeks to tackle that question. In the process, we offer a perspective on both the global luxury market and the corresponding stocks. Categories that over-index to the high-end are a blend of goods

Key Points: In a recent report we assessed whether the consumer was hitting a soft patch or a wall. We concluded that they are more likely to bend than break. It’s rare for a recession to arise when real PCE is positive, but even a slowdown in spending can create risk to earnings. This report introduces a framework that can help identify stocks with the most – and least – earnings risk. Companies in the

Key Points: The strength and consistency of the US consumer have provided ballast for the broader economy, but lately there have been some signs of fatigue. The aim of this report is to determine whether the consumer is hitting a soft patch or a wall. Last year the consumer had to contend with enormous crosscurrents. At the end of the day though, job gains, strong wage growth and the drawdown of “excess savings” overpowered the

Key Points: Since founding Rubinson Research one year ago, we’ve developed dozens of frameworks to measure the well-being of the consumer – both in aggregate and by income cohort. Those indicators led us to be bullish on the consumer for the past year. Our frameworks though, are no longer as supportive as they had been. Labor markets are strong and balance sheets are fortress-like – but we are seeing some signs of strain. People are

Key Points: The food industry tends to be fairly staid with annualized growth of ~2% in real terms. The pandemic, however, upended consumer behavior, and channel shares have swung wildly over the past few years. This report studies the food sector from three perspectives – retailers, restaurants, and packaged food companies. At its peak, spending on food at home outpaced ‘normal’ by $42 billion in real terms. That’s since been whittled down to $12 billion,

Key Points: The consumer wasn’t the cause of upheaval in the banking system, but they may still feel some collateral damage. This report focuses on two key risks that could affect future spending – consumer liquidity and access to credit. The consumer has been highly liquid over the past few years, and that’s helped them part with “excess savings” to fuel consumption. However, the cost of liquidity has increased now that the yield on a

Key Points: The narrative around the US consumer seems to have shifted. As recently as a few months ago, we were hearing predictions of doom and gloom, but ever since the January jobs and retail sales data were released, the primary concern we’re hearing is that the consumer is running too hot. This report seeks to understand where the consumer is headed. We assess both the relevant data and consumer behavior. The data tell us

Key Points: I covered Amazon stock in a previous life, and while I’m no longer in the game of conjuring up price targets, that hasn’t stopped me from analyzing the company’s financials. We focus on Amazon’s retail business in this report. Our aim is to highlight important metrics that often get overlooked. Amazon’s fulfillment center buildout was akin to adding KSS, TSCO, RH, ULTA, DKS, M, and URBN – the entire companies – for two