Key Points: Our optimism for the US consumer has been well placed. The consumer has been remarkably resilient over the past few years, largely due to strong labor markets and bulletproof balance sheets. The current year is off to a good start, but as we peer into 2025, we expect spending to slip into a lower gear.
Key Points: The low-end has been struggling for a while, but recent commentary from McDonald’s, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and others has fueled investor concerns. The aim of this report is to add clarity to the debate, and to determine whether a bet on the low-end makes sense.
Key Points: When it comes to the consumer, market participants spend a lot of time and energy studying the demand side of the equation. Supply dynamics often get short shrift. In this report, we analyze the supply of labor, the supply of fixed capacity, and the supply of inventory. Understanding the supply side can also tell us something about where inflation is headed.
Key Points: There were more than a few landmines in the consumer sector during Q1 earnings season, and lately, it’s been bellwether stocks like Starbucks, McDonald’s, Nike, and Lululemon that’ve been sounding the alarm. The aim of this report is to understand whether Q1 results signal a softening consumer, or if the issues are idiosyncratic in nature.
Key Points: The gig economy remains a mystery. It’s estimated that 25% of the population participates in informal work, but their efforts are not captured in official statistics. If they were, employment would be higher by as much as 4%. The gig economy has spawned some interesting business models like Uber and DoorDash. This report offers a perspective on those platforms and compares them to other delivery-based models, including Dominos, Amazon and UPS.
Key Points: There’s been a wide divergence of returns among consumer stocks over the past year. In the process, we’ve seen valuations converge. In this report, we dig into valuation – our aim is to determine whether it should play a central role or a supporting role in the stock selection process. We also seek to identify opportunities that boast both solid fundamentals and attractive valuation.
There’s a lot going on in consumer land, and this webinar measures the headwinds and tailwinds facing the consumer in 2025 and 2026. Late last year we grew concerned that the consumer was off kilter — employment and spending trends were unbalanced, and we were concerned that policy would dampen spending growth. Now that fiscal stimulus is in the works, our outlook has turned more neutral. There’s lots of math in this presentation, especially as it pertains to policy — immigration, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus. …
We’ve been cautious on the consumer for the past six months. It’s not just about tariffs. Employment growth is lopsided, PCE growth has been of low quality, immigration will soon begin to weigh on aggregate demand, the credit impulse is muted, the “wealth effect” is reversing, and real wage growth is already slowing. Tariffs are a headwind, but they don’t anchor our view. This 30-minute webinar walks through a ton of useful data.
We hosted a timely webinar that outlined a few tail risks. Employment growth is being driven by acyclical sectors like government and health care. Both of these are under a microscope. Job gains are heavily skewed to large firms with over 500 employees. That adds risk to the equation. Immigrants have also been driving the train, but for how long? Tail risk is also discernible within PCE. Obscure categories are growing twice as fast as “bankable” categories. Have a listen!
Hal Lawton joins a growing list of CEOs that’ve graced us with their presence. He shared key insights on our podcast. We talked about how a tight housing market pushed Millennials into TSCO’s catchment area. We talked about TSCO’s 7% market share, and the fact that outsized comps were driven by transactions, not ticket. TSCO has no direct peer — that means it doesn’t have to share its slice of the market with “like” competitors or fall prey to their mistakes. Give a listen!
We hosted a webinar to review the state of the consumer and to detail why 2025 might hold a few surprises. We dive into the labor markets with a focus on immigration; we assess the implications of other policies such as tariffs and taxes; we explore household balance sheets to understand how wealth and leverage might influence consumer spending. Our take is that a softening consumer will impact the interest rate environment, and that in turn, can have meaningful implications for stock selection. The slides…
Brinker has been on a tear. Same store sales have been ripping even as other restaurants are struggling. We talk with CFO Mika Ware who has a unique perspective on the company’s turnaround. It’s a classic case of blocking and tackling — slimming down the menu, simplifying recipes, improving standards, and killer marketing that’s informed by insights and data. It sounds like Brinker has more work to do at Chili’s, and it might be able to replicate that success with other banners.