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Will the Consumer Buckle Under Pressure or Power Through?

Introducing Rubinson Research I am pleased to share this report with you.  It’s the first one being issued by my newly formed research boutique, Rubinson Research.  I founded the firm with the explicit goal of identifying and quantifying complex issues that are top-of-mind for CIOs, portfolio managers and industry analysts.  We will specialize in blending high-level macro insights with granular micro data.  The firm is subscription-based and if you’d like to subscribe, please reply to this

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Announcing the Launch of Rubinson Research

I am proud to introduce Rubinson Research, an independent investment research boutique that specializes in blending high-level macro insights with granular micro data. This differentiated approach is a natural result of my diverse set of experiences that include covering consumer stocks on the sell-side for two decades and managing a portfolio of global consumer stocks on the buy-side.  The five years I spent as the Consumer Strategist at Empirical Research Partners have added another important

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"UP-TO-DATA" PODCAST​

A Conversation with Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot

Today we caught up with Ted Decker, the CEO of Home Depot.  We talked about the health of the consumer, the state of the housing market, the “lock-in” effect, AI, and more.  I asked how long the hangover in COVID-friendly categories like BBQ grills, outdoor furniture and washing machines might last.  He compared the dynamic to a hurricane, which made…

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A Conversation with Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Airlines

Conversations with CEO/CFOs:  We added a new feature to our “Up-to-Data” podcast series. This week’s issue features a 30-minute conversation with Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Airlines.  Ed has led Delta’s employees, customers and shareholders through some turbulent times.  In the process, he and the rest of the Delta team have built trust with customers (empathy), employees (no furloughs),…

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Covering the Waterfront. Coming Soon: Conversations with Corporate Execs

This installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast is more comprehensive than most.  We take a step back to see what the latest data are telling us about the consumer.  We cover the labor market, excess savings, the wealth effect, goods vs. services, household balance sheets, inventory dynamics, the housing sector, and leisure. Coming soon: Conversations with Corporate Execs.  Many of our…

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Politics, Taxes, Tariffs, Consumer Credit, and Inventory Freshness

The Presidential election is not far away, and this installment of our “Up-to-Data” podcast explores how policy might influence consumer behavior.  When it comes to policy, there’s a lot to consider, and we’re especially attuned to distributional shifts that could occur as a result.  The presentation also takes stock of household balance sheets, including the supply of credit.  Finally, we…

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Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales, e-Com, Home Depot, The “Lock-in Effect”, and Credit Card Green Shoots

We’ve analyzed a ton of new data over the past week.  Issue #4 of our podcast makes sure you are up to date.  It walks you through incremental data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, April retail sales, e-Commerce penetration, Capital One, Discover Financial, Home Depot, the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report, the San Francisco Fed’s…

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Savings, Inflation, Immigration, the Low-End, Food, and Mattresses

In issue #3 we analyze immigration, excess savings, and the low-end consumer.  Immigration has been a big contributor to the labor force, and with elections in the offing, it presents more than a trivial risk.  We track the amount of construction put into place due to the CHIPS Act.  We also offer an analysis of the US mattress industry.  We…

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