Key Points: In a recent report we assessed whether the consumer was hitting a soft patch or a wall. We concluded that they are more likely to bend than break. It’s rare for a recession to arise when real PCE is positive, but even a slowdown in spending can create risk to earnings. This report introduces a framework that can help identify stocks with the most – and least – earnings risk. Companies in the
Key Points: The strength and consistency of the US consumer have provided ballast for the broader economy, but lately there have been some signs of fatigue. The aim of this report is to determine whether the consumer is hitting a soft patch or a wall. Last year the consumer had to contend with enormous crosscurrents. At the end of the day though, job gains, strong wage growth and the drawdown of “excess savings” overpowered the
Key Points: Since founding Rubinson Research one year ago, we’ve developed dozens of frameworks to measure the well-being of the consumer – both in aggregate and by income cohort. Those indicators led us to be bullish on the consumer for the past year. Our frameworks though, are no longer as supportive as they had been. Labor markets are strong and balance sheets are fortress-like – but we are seeing some signs of strain. People are
Key Points: The food industry tends to be fairly staid with annualized growth of ~2% in real terms. The pandemic, however, upended consumer behavior, and channel shares have swung wildly over the past few years. This report studies the food sector from three perspectives – retailers, restaurants, and packaged food companies. At its peak, spending on food at home outpaced ‘normal’ by $42 billion in real terms. That’s since been whittled down to $12 billion,
Key Points: The consumer wasn’t the cause of upheaval in the banking system, but they may still feel some collateral damage. This report focuses on two key risks that could affect future spending – consumer liquidity and access to credit. The consumer has been highly liquid over the past few years, and that’s helped them part with “excess savings” to fuel consumption. However, the cost of liquidity has increased now that the yield on a
Key Points: The narrative around the US consumer seems to have shifted. As recently as a few months ago, we were hearing predictions of doom and gloom, but ever since the January jobs and retail sales data were released, the primary concern we’re hearing is that the consumer is running too hot. This report seeks to understand where the consumer is headed. We assess both the relevant data and consumer behavior. The data tell us
We’ve been expecting the consumer to hit a soft patch, and recent employment data have made that outcome more likely. Fiscal stimulus and rate cuts will help stave off a bigger issue, but portfolios might still need to be reoriented. We think rate-sensitive names will continue to work — we’re especially fond of housing-related stocks. And, we built three frameworks to identify stocks that can bridge a gap. They identify issues with (i) pricing power, (ii) asset-light models, and (iii) good shock absorbers.
This webinar details our outlook for the consumer. H2 ’25 will be turbulent due to a lopsided employment picture, incomes that are not as strong as they appear, an immigration headwind, collateral damage from student debt repayment, and tariffs. We expect the consumer to recover in early ’26 due to stimulus, but investors might want to be prepared for a choppy ride. We recommend finding stocks with pricing power and bulletproof business models. We introduce a couple of frameworks to help chart the course.
There’s a lot going on in consumer land, and this webinar measures the headwinds and tailwinds facing the consumer in 2025 and 2026. Late last year we grew concerned that the consumer was off kilter — employment and spending trends were unbalanced, and we were concerned that policy would dampen spending growth. Now that fiscal stimulus is in the works, our outlook has turned more neutral. There’s lots of math in this presentation, especially as it pertains to policy — immigration, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus. …
We’ve been cautious on the consumer for the past six months. It’s not just about tariffs. Employment growth is lopsided, PCE growth has been of low quality, immigration will soon begin to weigh on aggregate demand, the credit impulse is muted, the “wealth effect” is reversing, and real wage growth is already slowing. Tariffs are a headwind, but they don’t anchor our view. This 30-minute webinar walks through a ton of useful data.
We hosted a timely webinar that outlined a few tail risks. Employment growth is being driven by acyclical sectors like government and health care. Both of these are under a microscope. Job gains are heavily skewed to large firms with over 500 employees. That adds risk to the equation. Immigrants have also been driving the train, but for how long? Tail risk is also discernible within PCE. Obscure categories are growing twice as fast as “bankable” categories. Have a listen!
Hal Lawton joins a growing list of CEOs that’ve graced us with their presence. He shared key insights on our podcast. We talked about how a tight housing market pushed Millennials into TSCO’s catchment area. We talked about TSCO’s 7% market share, and the fact that outsized comps were driven by transactions, not ticket. TSCO has no direct peer — that means it doesn’t have to share its slice of the market with “like” competitors or fall prey to their mistakes. Give a listen!